Optimism has graced the Polish economy: Ratings agency Moody’s thinks GDP will grow faster than previously expected.
Originally forecasted at 3.2%, GDP is now predicted to grow by 4.3%.
Why, why, why?
Consumer spending is up.
And so is investment from both the private world and the EU.
Then there’s the expectation that the country’s structural budget deficit will stay below that magical 3% of GDP.
It was originally forecasted to be around 3% but it’s now 2.5%.
And that’s important: this data is coming from the same agency that recently downgraded the UK’s credit rating. One of the biggest motivators for that cut was fears the UK is going to miss its deficit elimination plans.
So, showing that a deficit is being reduced or at least being maintained at a low level is something that ratings agencies love.
Poland has lofty aspirations.
As a leading voice of the EU’s eastern members, it’s looking for ways to share leadership of the Union with traditional powerbrokers France and Germany.
But its GDP is around Greece’s level, far behind those two heavyweights.
So it needs to maintain this economic momentum in order to make European political gains.